Industry Forecasts

Our industry forecasts are based on a statistical model that allows us to model each industry’s long-run trend, as well as the short-run deviations around it. The forecasts are determined by a combination of:

  • History (including the industry’s historical trend and how the industry has responded to shocks in the past),
  • International forces (examples include commodity prices, export/import volumes, international growth rates, etc.),
  • Domestic forces (examples include investment growth, population growth, household wealth, etc.), and
  • Financial conditions (interest rates, asset prices, etc.)

Since each industry responds differently to economic disturbances and has its own set of drivers, we constructed a unique model for all 22 industries.

Revenue Growth Forecasts (Nominal)

Average Annual % Growth

Industry Long-term Average (since 1991) Recent History (2010-2015) Central Forecast (2016-2020) Upside Case (2016-2020) Downside Case (2016-2020)
Education 7.8 7.5 8.1 10.3 7.6
Health 9.3 9.2 8.7 8.7 7.5
Food Manufacturing 4.9 3.9 5.3 5.9 3.5
Oil & Gas Extraction 9.1 3.9 4.7 5.0 -0.4
Financial Services 8.1 4.9 7.3 9.5 4.3
Construction 7.6 5.4 4.8 8.1 1.3
Other Services 5.6 5.6 4.3 6.1 3.3
Agriculture 5.0 4.4 4.5 4.6 3.9
Rental and Real Estate 7.2 6.9 6.5 7.3 2.2
Hospitality 5.7 4.2 4.9 5.9 1.9
Telco, Media and IT 7.5 4.8 5.0 8.4 4.5
Utilities 6.1 8.6 2.7 2.7 0.5
Admin. & Support Services 6.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 2.2
Professional Services 7.8 5.8 6.0 7.5 2.3
Advanced Manufacturing 1.9 0.0 1.6 5.2 0.7
Mining Services 5.4 0.5 -0.3 5.5 -0.7
Retail 4.7 3.5 3.3 5.6 1.6
Wholesale 4.4 3.0 2.4 5.2 1.3
Transport and Logistics 5.0 4.2 3.6 6.3 2.2
Arts and Recreation 4.3 2.0 2.5 4.5 2.4
Basic Manufacturing 2.1 -0.3 0.9 4.0 -0.2
Mining 9.9 7.3 2.6 6.2 1.1
Weighted Average 6.5 5.2 4.9 5.8 3.9